Research from academic institutions, non-partisan legal centers, and state election audits consistently indicates that noncitizen voting is extremely rare and does not occur at a scale that could impact election results. Supporting data for this conclusion includes:

1. Statistical Rarity in Election Audits

State-level investigations across the country have repeatedly found that improper noncitizen votes account for an "infinitesimal" percentage of total ballots cast:

• Michigan (2024): A state audit found that out of more than 5.7 million ballots cast, only 16 appeared to have been cast by noncitizens (0.00028%).
• Georgia (2024): A statewide review of more than 8.2 million voters identified approximately 20 noncitizens on the rolls. A previous 2022 review found that while 1,634 applicants couldn't initially verify citizenship, the state’s screening prevented any from actually voting.
• Nevada (2016): An audit identified 3 noncitizens who voted out of 1.1 million ballots (0.0003%).
• North Carolina (2016): An audit found 41 noncitizens cast ballots out of 4.8 million votes (0.0008%).
• Ohio (2015): The Secretary of State found 44 noncitizens had voted over a period of 15 years, during which millions of ballots were cast annually.

2. National Studies and Data Analysis

Comprehensive reviews of federal and local data suggest the problem is "vanishingly rare":

• Brennan Center Study (2016): An analysis of 42 jurisdictions (covering 23.5 million votes) found only 30 incidents of suspected noncitizen voting referred for investigation, representing 0.0001% of the total.
• Department of Justice (2002-2005): A DOJ initiative to uncover voter fraud resulted in only 14 convictions of noncitizens for voting nationwide over three years.
• The Heritage Foundation Database: Although often cited by proponents of stricter voting laws, an analysis by the Brennan Center found that this database (which spans decades) contained only 41 cases involving noncitizens registering or voting as of 2019.

3. Structural Deterrents

Experts point to significant legal and personal risks that deter noncitizens from attempting to vote:

• Severe Penalties: Noncitizen voting is a federal crime that carries penalties of prison time, massive fines, and—most significantly—deportation or the permanent loss of eligibility for naturalization.
• Multiple Verification Checks: States use a variety of systems to verify eligibility, including checking DMV records and the federal SAVE (Systemic Alien Verification for Entitlements) database.
• Lack of Incentive: For individual noncitizens, the risk of losing their legal status or being separated from their families far outweighs the perceived benefit of casting a single vote.

4. Flaws in "Massive Fraud" Claims

Research that claims high rates of noncitizen voting is often criticized for methodological errors: