Based on the analysis of the H.R. 22 SAVE Act, here are the estimates regarding the people affected, broken down by total numbers, gender, and political affiliation.
1. Estimated Total Number of People Affected
Total: 80–120 Million Eligible Voters
According to the "Estimated Numbers Affected by HR 22" page, roughly one-third to one-half of all registered voters would face new barriers to registration. This estimate is derived from the following overlapping groups:
- Low-income voters lacking passports: ~80–100 million Americans (only 1 in 5 earning under $50k possess a passport).
- Women with name mismatches: ~69 million women.
- Rural voters: ~46 million.
- Young voters (18–24): ~30 million.
2. Percent Breakdown by Gender
Estimate: ~60–70% Women / ~30–40% Men
While the text does not provide an explicit percentage for the total split, the data indicates a heavy skew toward women due to the 19th Amendment arguments regarding name changes.
- Women: The legislation creates a unique barrier for approximately 69 million women who have changed their names due to marriage or divorce and lack birth certificates matching their current legal names. This specific group constitutes a massive portion of the total 80–120 million affected.
- Men: Men are primarily affected by economic and geographic barriers (lack of passport, rural distance from offices) covered under the 24th and 14th Amendments. However, because 90% of women change their names upon marriage while very few men do, men are largely exempt from the "name mismatch" barrier.
3. Percent Breakdown by Party
Estimate: 55–65% Democrat / 35–45% Republican
The documents explicitly state that the affected groups lean Democratic, creating a "net partisan impact."
- Democrats (~44–78 million affected): The groups most heavily impacted—young voters (66% Dem), Black voters (83% Dem), Hispanic voters (61% Dem), and unmarried women—lean significantly Democratic.
- Republicans (~28–54 million affected): The primary Republican-leaning group affected is rural voters (~46 million total, leaning 62% Republican).
- Net Impact: The documents conclude that 16–36 million more Democratic-leaning voters would face barriers than Republican-leaning voters, representing a 5–15 point deviation from the typical partisan balance of the electorate.