The disproportionate impact of HR 22 on Democratic-leaning voters is significant enough to be considered legally and politically consequential.

Overall Party Affiliation of Affected Groups

Based on available data, the 80–120 million voters affected by HR 22 lean Democratic by approximately 55–65%.

Why this estimate:

• Most demographic groups (Black voters, Hispanic voters, young voters, women) lean 55–83% Democratic
• Rural voters (~46 million) are the main Republican-leaning group at ~62% Republican
• Since rural voters represent only ~46 million of 80–120 million total affected, and other groups (young voters, voters of color, women) make up the majority, the overall population leans Democratic

Net Partisan Impact

With 80–120 million affected voters and a 55–65% Democratic lean:

Democratic-leaning voters affected:

• ~44–78 million voters face new barriers

Republican-leaning voters affected:

• ~28–54 million voters face new barriers

Net difference:

• 16–36 million more Democratic voters would face barriers than Republican voters

Electoral Context: Why This Matters

To understand the scale, consider recent election margins:

2020 Presidential Election

• Popular vote margin: ~7 million votes
• HR 22's net impact is 2–5 times larger than this margin